Your Development

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response (Stern, 2006). In Australia, the climate in the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events and without further adaptation, potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial (IPCC, 2007).

If climate change is taken into account, then the development is more likely to have a long and successful future. As understanding of the importance of climate change issues increases, a climate-proofed development could become a better investment and command a higher price. Long-term running costs, including insurance, will be less and the future asset value higher. Where finance is needed from long-term investors such as pension funds, taking a long-term view at the design stage makes a lot of financial sense.

If not addressed, climate change could mean that the development proves to be too dangerous or uncomfortable to live in, too expensive to run and maintain, and affordable insurance may no longer be available. It could also contribute to or exacerbate problems for neighbouring development(s) and the wider region.

Australia has a wide range of climate regimes, and experiences large annual variations in rainfall with droughts, fires and floods being common. The surrounding oceans play a large part in Australia’s climate, which is strongly influenced by El Nino Southern Oscillation occurrences. Many Australian sectors and systems are highly vulnerable to climate change – including the property sector. Preparing Australia for the unavoidable impacts of climate change is imperative. Australia’s climate is clearly changing and increasing temperatures with associated heat waves, changes in rainfall distribution, and increases in extreme weather events will become more commonplace.

Read more in other factsheets, including adaptation to climate change -sea level rise and flooding and the possible effects on buildings through climate change.

More hot days and more heatwaves

Background: By 2030, annual average temperatures are likely to be 0.4 to 2.0°C higher over most of Australia, with slightly less warming in some coastal areas and Tasmania, and there is potential for greater warming in the north-west. By 2070, annual average temperatures are likely to increase by 1.0 to 6.0°C over most of Australia with spatial variation similar to those for 2030. The range of warming is greatest in spring and least in winter. In the north-west, the greatest potential warming occurs in summer.

Implications: Increases in average temperature can lead to large changes in the occurrence of extremely hot or cold days with the average number of hot days to increase across most of Australia.

For urban planners, more frequent heatwaves may increase the stress on emergency services and hospitals. For local government, climate change may affect the economic base of the local region, for instance, by reducing the viability of pasture growth and therefore carrying capacity or perhaps causing the southward spread of pests and diseases previously limited to tropical areas.

Climate change may also create new demands for services, for instance, due to more frequent heatwave conditions. Thus, some local governments may be faced with a reduced ability to raise income accompanied by increased demands for services, ranging from geriatric care to emergency services.

Due to the urban heat island, urban centres can be a lot warmer than the surrounding countryside, especially at night. The urban heat island effect currently adds several degrees to summer night temperatures and will intensify in the future. Consequently developers must have regard to the heat island effect on any urban conurbation, in particular, how it will affect buildings and vulnerable groups of occupiers, such as the elderly.

Adaptations: Help reduce the urban heat island effect by planning green space, green roofs and using appropriate shade when locating developments. Additionally, measures to improve buildings’ energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions coincidentally also improved resilience against overheating. That is, houses with good solar design features such as properly shaded north- and west-facing windows, minimal west-facing windows, or provision for effective ventilation should be least affected. Houses without such features, or poor solar design, could suffer severe overheating.

Back to top

Make a comment

Fire-weather risk in the south east

Background: Fire risk is influenced by a number of factors – including fuels, terrain, land management, suppression and weather. Fire-weather risk relates to how a combination of weather variables influences the risk of a fire starting or its rate of spread, intensity or difficulty of suppression.

Average annual rainfall is expected to change across Australia, with a tendency to decreased rainfall across much of southern and eastern Australia. This will leave the south-east hotter and drier under climate change. CSIRO found that at most sites an increase in fire-weather risk is likely in 2020 and 2050. Changes in the frequencies of extreme Forest Fire Danger Index days are generally largest inland (Tasmania is likely to be relatively unaffected) and the combined frequencies of days with very high and extreme ratings are projected to increase 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.

Implications: Bushfires have been a regular feature of the Australian environment, costing hundreds of lives and causing extensive economic damage. The nature of droughts in eastern Australia appears to be changing. Since 1973 droughts have become hotter, with the 2002-03 drought being the hottest in the past 100-years with over three million hectares of bushland and vegetation destroyed across the country. In the months preceding the bushfires, severe drought, below normal humidity and high daytime temperatures combined to create an environment that was highly susceptible to the spread of bushfires. Many regions in Australia experienced record droughts in 2007.

Canberra is likely to have an annual average of 26-29 very high or extreme fire danger days by 2020 and 28-38 days by 2050, compared to a present average of 23 days.

Although the frequency of bushfires is likely to increase, because of the nature of a bushfire it is not likely that the frequency in any area can be more than 15 years (the time allowed for the bush to regenerate). For example, buildings built to the Building Code (Level 3 of the standard AS3959-1999) should cope with bushfire risk but changes in risk may change the areas in which this standard needs to apply.

Adaptations: With the increase in fire intensity areas, bushfire zone areas may change. In these areas it becomes important to educate about the maintenance needs to minimise fire risk. For example, houses on small sites (i.e. close together) will increase the risk of fire spreading so in zoned areas, and with the increasing demands on the land.

Domestic sprinkler systems are another possible option. However, when considering sprinkler solutions it is important to consider the implications of water shortages that are typically associated during this season make this a less feasible option unless water tanks are specifically installed for this purpose.

Back to top

Make a comment

Key Issues

Benefits

Developers and those who invest in new development should consider the financial implications of climate change as a key component of the business case for building, and investing in, a development.

Early site selection benefits may be realised by avoiding, for example, low-lying coastal areas, even before local authorities policies reflect climate change risks.

Corporate responses to climate change may alter brand values and perceptions among customers, staff, suppliers and shareholders. Climate change presents a number of opportunities, as well as risks, to a developer and the wider organisation. The benefits of addressing climate change can be categorised as:

Better risk management:

• Reduce risks and liabilities through pro-active risk management by bringing planning for climate change into the mainstream of operations.
• Demonstration of due diligence of climate change related risks such as property damage, and the health and safety of the community.

Financial:

• Higher future asset values due to lower long term running costs from insurance, repairs, maintenance, and heating and cooling costs.
• Good financial sense for long term investors taking a long-term view at the design stage, especially to those considering corporate social responsibility (CSR).

Market differentiation:

• Properties are likely to sell or let at a higher price as clients are attracted to well designed buildings, properly protected from climate change risks.
• Opportunity to position and market the organisation as a market leader on climate proofed buildings and highlights the organisation’s “sustainability credentials” to clients, staff and investors.

Back to top

Make a comment

Risks

In general there are two types of risks associated with anticipating and adaptation to climate change: the risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to the impacts and consequences of climate change and the financial risk of over-spending or making unnecessary or cost inefficient adaptations; the risk of investing in the wrong kind of adaptation measures; and last but not least, the risk of investing with a false sense of security, in the face of large uncertainties.

The most attractive adaptation actions are those that, regardless of what changes are occurring to Australia’s climate, will provide a net benefit. With some degree of benefit or co-benefits irrespective of the scale of climate change, will help lessen the difficulties associated with scientific uncertainty.

The main risk categories are:

Operational/financial:

• Failure to adapt may result in developments too expensive to run, too uncomfortable to live or work in, and even uninsurable later in its life. For example increased energy costs and peak load management as some stations may not have enough water for cooling.
• Investors with climate vulnerable assets may start to offload vulnerable assets and invest in climate proofed assets instead.

Consumer expectations:

• That there will be an expectation among buyers and tenants that developments designed and built now will withstand the impacts of climate change within the lifetime of the development.

Legislation:

• Human induced climate change can no longer be considered speculative and the need for due diligence can not be excluded simply because a risk for harm is uncertain or lie in the future (see case study).
• By failing to take voluntary measures now (that anticipate future requirements), there is a risk that more expensive remedial measures may need to be taken at a later date to ensure compliance as legislation comes into force.

Funding:

• Public subsidy may not be available to developers that have not incorporated climate change into the location and design of their development, or investing bodies may not want to invest in non-climate proofed developments.

Reputation risks:

• Failure to address climate change threatens the sustainability of a building, development and/or land by, for example, high temperatures that make the building very expensive to cool;
• If property insurance cannot be provided in areas of increasing risk e.g. due to high fire risk.

Increased weather risks:

• Increased insurance premiums could add to running costs, affecting the value of the development;
• Secondary damage inside buildings due to events happening outside of the building.

Delaying action:

• Workers will be more likely to suffer heat stress in summer adding cost to construction.

Loss of productivity:

• Climate change may threaten working conditions and travel arrangements for staff, e.g. internal environment becomes uncomfortable as a result of increased summer temperature.

Supply chain

• No company operates in isolation. Most of the risks above will relate to a greater or lesser degree to a businesses’ supply chain;
• Added carbon charges would increase energy costs for raw materials and manufacturing processes, and impose additional costs on steel, aluminium, and cement manufacturing. Timber would probably have the lowest price increase, more for cement, much more for steel and even more for aluminium.

The magnitude and applicability of the above risks for your development will depend on a number of factors such as geographic location, type of development, and funding and ownership structure.

Back to top

Make a comment

Savings

The expected savings from a climate change prepared development will depend on the specific location and regional conditions, but in general they are:

• Avoided investment failures by moving away from high-risk sites;
• Lower insurance premiums as the development can demonstrate lower risks towards adverse changes in the climate such as increases in extreme weather events and bush fires;
• Lower life cycle costs from avoided needs to repair as well as avoided compliance costs for retrofits and reinforcements demanded by adapted regulations or tenant demands;
• Lower energy costs since a climate change adapted development has factored in cost effective measures to prepare for increased cooling demand and increasing energy prices;
• A climate change adapted development have reduced or avoided the risk of disruptions of utilities, communications or other infrastructure, which in turn will increase overall productivity compared to non-adapted developments.

Back to top

Make a comment

Costs

Two main drivers for adapting to climate changes are reduced risk and lower life cycle cost (LCC) from avoided repairs, maintenance and retrofits, and reduced operational energy and water costs. However in order to achieve reduced LCC there may be added costs in time and money in the planning, design and construction phases in order to identify, assess and reduce climate change risks.

Examples of added initial costs may include

• Green roofs to insulate against heat gains, absorb rainfall and reduce stormwater runoff from flash floods;
• Rainwater collection and water recycling to increase resilience against droughts and increased water scarcity;
• Renewable energy supply (e.g. solar water heating, photovoltaic and wind turbines) or cogeneration plants put in place to reduce exposure to increasing energy prices and greenhouse gas charges; and
• Upgrades of glazing, insulation, HVAC systems and shading to mitigate overheating and costs for space conditioning;

Future costs may include loss of property as the asset value and rents for developments with increased exposure or vulnerability towards extreme weather events, energy costs or water availability.

Back to top

Make a comment

Barriers

The magnitude of global warming, and ultimately the regional impacts in Australia, will depend on the combined development of the global population, economy and individual lifestyle choices etc. over the next decades. Although the current ambition of many countries is to limit warming to 2°C this will require urgent, significant and sustained international cooperation and action for which there currently are no guarantees or agreements. This uncertainty underpins many barriers to adaptation such as:

• The precision of local climate change impact projections over the lifetime of a development 
• The general awareness of the large scale impacts of climate change has increased dramatically over the last years. In many cases local governments have published climate change impact assessments and adaptation plans;
• Lack of regulatory drivers guiding and mandating adaptation;
• Lack of urgency and priority to address long term climate change impacts;
• Financiers’ ability to get return on investments in climate change adaptation returns which are realised over the lifetime of the development. For example, the split incentive of energy efficiency investments in buildings, where the owner pays the initial investments in insulation or equipment efficiencies but the tenants receive savings in energy costs.

Back to top

Make a comment

Benchmarks

There are no widely applied tools or benchmarks to quantify adaptation to climate change in Australia. For the New Zealand context the Climate Change Sustainability Index is available for rating residential or office building development with regards to vulnerability towards climate change in the categories: flooding, extra-tropical cyclones, overheating and greenhouse gas emissions (assuming escalating energy prices and carbon charges will increasingly be a factor).

The federal government have developed climate change adaptation and risk management guidelines such as the Australian Greenhouse Office’s ‘Climate Change Adaptations for the Local Government’ addressing six local functions: infrastructure and property services, provision of recreational facilities, health services, planning and development approvals, natural resource management and water and sewage services.

The ‘Climate Change Impacts and Risk Assessment – A Guide for Business and Government’ is a guide to integrate climate change impacts into risk management and other strategic planning activities for both the public and private sector. Many local governments have developed strategic and/or adaptation plans for climate change.

Back to top

Make a comment

Development phase actions

Feasibility

Climate change may affect the feasibility of a development with regards to:

• Safety and sustainability:
  • How will the location be affected by drought, bushfire, heatwaves and increase in pest and diseases? Is this an inappropriate location of urban expansion? Is this area vulnerable to climate change impacts and risk of future liability?
• Economic sustainability:
  • How will the local community, industry or business be affected by climate change?
  • Does a significant portion of the local community living in an already high risk bushfire zone?
• Regulatory changes:
  • How will the development be affected by changes to building regulations and land use zoning?
  • How would increased need for disaster management and response resources affect the development?
• Infrastructure resilience:
  • Is the development dependent on infrastructure or utilities that may be vulnerable to or even retired due to climate change?
  • Is the development reliant on people travelling long distances? How will rising energy and fuel prices impact the economic viability of the development?

Contact local governments for local climate change impact assessments and the risk assessment and adaptation guides introduced under “Benchmarks”.

Back to top

Make a comment

Planning

Planning for climate change includes accommodating for and adaptation to:

• Extreme weather events:
  • Direct impacts from extreme weather events, including increased risk of bushfire;
• Road/pavement construction and maintenance
  • Increase in road subsidence and surface damage;
  • Increase in maintenance and repair costs; and
  • Changes in frequency of interruption of road traffic from extreme weather events.
• Impact on neighbours
  • Any development in an area will affect the ability of other developments, existing or future, to adapt to climate change. Issues include: provision of wind protection, ventilation and shade; fragmentation and vulnerability of habitats; and increased land instability.

Back to top

Make a comment

Design

Actions required during the design phase are highly dependent and driven by the risks and opportunities identified in the feasibility and planning phase. Likely design issues include:

• Site layout: Ensure the overall layout and massing of the development:
  • Designed to reduce heat gains in summer and infiltration from increased wind and temperatures;
  • Maximise natural vegetation;
  • Take account of the increased risk of subsidence;
  • Provide homes and other appropriate uses with outdoor space wherever possible.
• Ventilation and cooling
  • Should be designed to use as little carbon-based energy as possible by utilising renewable energies and energy efficiency.
• Water
  • Estimate the net water consumption of the development under normal use and under water conservation conditions for scenarios during the lifetime of the development; and
  • Minimise water use in buildings, consider the use of rainwater collection/reuse systems.
• Outdoor spaces
  • Incorporate public and private outdoor spaces with shade, vegetation and water features (with minimal net water use);
  • Provide a rainwater collection system/grey-water recycling for watering gardens and landscape areas; and
  • Ensure there are arrangements for storing waste which allows for separation and prevent excessive smell in hotter conditions.
• Connectivity
  • Negotiate with utilities and others over the resilience of services and infrastructure to the development.

Back to top

Make a comment

Lot Creation

• Follow passive solar design principles to minimise buildings energy consumption for space conditioning.

Back to top

Make a comment

Completion

• Verify that climate change risk mitigation has been properly implemented.
• In order to capitalise on the many benefits from a climate change adapted development it may be prudent to market, communicate and learn from the measures and strategies devised.
• Capture learning from implemented climate change adaptations.

Back to top

Make a comment

AGO, 2007, Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government.

AGO, 2006, Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management - A Guide for Business and Government.

Bengtsson, J, Hargreaves, R and Page I.C, 2007, An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings in New Zealand to the Impacts of Climate Change, BRANZ Study Report 179. BRANZ Ltd, Judgeford, New Zealand.

BRANZ Ltd, 2007, An Assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the Unavoidable Consequences of Climate Change, Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Australian Greenhouse Office.

CSIRO, 2007, Climate Change in Australia.

CSIRO, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd and Phillips Fox, 2007, Climate Change and Infrastructure Planning Ahead, Prepared for Victorian Government

Energy Efficient Strategies, 2006, 'Status of Air Conditioners in Australia' – Updated with 2005 data, for the National Appliance and Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee.

K. Hennessy, C. Page, K. McInnes, K. Walsh ,B. Pittock, J. Bathols and R. Suppiah, 2004, Climate Change in the Northern Territory, Consultancy report for the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment.

K. Hennessy, C. Lucas N. Nicholls J. Bathols, R. Suppiah and J. Ricketts, 2005, Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia, CSIRO.

IPCC, 2007, Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panle of Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hansen, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22.

London Climate Change Partnership, 2005, Adapting to climate change: a checklist for development Guidance on designing developments in a changing climate, Greater London Authority, ISBN 1 85261 795 0.

Steeds J and Danielsen P, 2007, Emerging Issues in Environmental Due Diligence – Managing Carbon, Energy and Social Risks, Global Legal Group, in association with Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer.

Stern, N, 2006, Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, London, UK.